The Folly of an Economy Going Against the Environment

From economists it is expected that they are in favour of production at any cost and against environmentalists. But it has to be the opposite. The Brazilian economy will suffer immensely if it continues the deforestation of (among others) the Amazon rainforest.

It is a shot in the foot. Export of Brazilian beef, for example, will face difficulties if the exporters are not guaranteeing the world market that the cattle did not come from deforested areas. The same problem producers will face with supermarkets, as they will require a ‘clean origin’ of the meat. Consumers also are awakening. As a consequence it is irrational, from an economic point of view, to go against the protection of the environment.

The Medida Provisória*) No. 458 (Decree MP 458), which passed Congress is foolish. It permits regularization of the lands for those who illegally invaded the Amazon rainforest. It regularizes illegality.

The confrontation between farmers and environmentalists is completely unreasonable. Even if the matter is discussed only in terms of economy, the environmentalists are right. Farmers celebrate victories that will turn against them in the future. The slaughterhouses will have to prove to supermarkets in Brazil and elsewhere that they did not buy cattle from (illegally) deforested areas.
The world is moving in one direction and Brazil running in the opposite direction with eyes fixed on the past, turning the clock back.

The debate, the proposals in Congress, the approval of MP 458, the mistakes of the government, the complicity of the opposition, show countrywide lack of understanding.
The tragedy is a multi-party action for burning down the Amazon.
Even China starts to change. In the United States, the Bush government is dumped in the trash bin of history. President Barack Obama steers the country in another direction. Presented US Congress with a set of federal parameters for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. What was once just a Californian dream, is now the outlook for the entire country.
At a time when the environment begins to accelerate attention in the world, Brazil still thinks it can bring down the planet's largest tropical forest, as if it were an obstacle.

MP 458, now only pending presidential sanction, is worse than it appears. It is disastrous. It legalises grileiros, who illegally invaded and burned down a part of the Amazon. He, who stole 1,500 hectares before the first of December 2004 could buy it without bidding and without inspection. He has preference over the land and can pay in the most friendly way: in 30 years with three years of grace. And if at the end of the grace he wants to sell the land, the MP allows it. In three years, the property can be passed on. For up to four hundred ‘stolen’ hectares, the period is ten years. And if the grileiro stool the land and left the daily work to his labourers as he himself lives somewhere else? He has also the right to stay with it, because even if the land is run by a "figurehead" the grileiro can buy it. And if it is a company? No problem at all.

Supporters of MP 458 in the House and the Senate say it is to regularize the situation which was initiated by the Military Regime and later abandoned.
Bullshit. As the deadline to acquire land is set by the first of December 2004.
They said it was to benefit the small settlers. Bullshit. As it does allow the sale of land run by a figurehead, and the sale to corporate entities.

The bill creates indecent loopholes for privatization in the worst way of the patrimony of all Brazilians.

Former Minister for the Environment and presently senator Marina Silva said that the day MP 458 was adopted in Congress, it was her third worst day of her life. She feels as if Brazil has lost all the advances of the recent years.
It is almost impossible to agree with Marina Silva as there hasn’t been much progress shown in the last years. The Lula government has always been ambiguous in relation to the environment, and Fernando Henrique, his predecessor, kept silent. If they had shown some stature, Brazil wouldn’t have lost what it lost.
In just the first two years of the Lula government, 2003 and 2004, 51.000 km2 have been deforested. Compare this to the size of the Netherlands (41.528 km2). And many grileiros who were part of that attack at the rainforest will now be ‘regularized’.

Last week Greenpeace released a devastating report, showing that 80% deforestation of the Amazon is due to livestock. Greenpeace published the names of the perpetrators, of which Bertin, Marfrig, Friboi JBS are the largest. The Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) is their partner and finances the ‘illegal’ operation. The mentioned companies provide meat to numerous retail chains, among them, large supermarkets as Carrefour, Wal-Mart and Pão de Açúcar.

During the Globonews’ programme ‘Espaço Aberto’, the coordinator of the study, Andrew Muggiatti met with Sussumu Honda, the chairman of ABRAS (Brazilian Association of Supermarkets). The BNDES was also invited, but did not show up.
The good news that came out of this programme was the positioning of the supermarkets. According to Sussumu Honda, they are preoccupied and will use their power to pressure the slaughterhouses to prove the origin of the cattle which meat is put on the supermarket shelves.
Brazilian meat exporters have threatened to sue Greenpeace. They should do the opposite and refuse any supplier linked to deforestation. The world will not buy Brazilian beef at this price. Exporters will face barriers. That's for sure.

The backward steps will not eliminate the external market. But that is of less importance. The tragedy is that Brazil is losing its future.
Ironically Brazil adopted MP 458 during the Week of the Environment.

This is a free translation and interpretation of an article which Míriam Leitão wrote on her blog on 05 June 2009

*) Medida Provisória In Brazilian constitutional law, a Medida Provisória (presidential decree) is issued by the President of the Republic, at his discretion, without the participation of the legislative branch. The measure has the force of law, albeit not being really a law in the strict technical sense of this term. Only in cases of importance and urgency the Chief Executive may issue decrees, which he should submit later to Congress. The decree stays in force for sixty days, extendable for another 60. After this time, if Congress does not approve it, and convert it into law, the measure will lose its force.
90603

Wrong Choices

This is a (translated and edited) text of the blog of Miriam Leitão, economist and columnist for O Globo
The response of Lula’s government to the financial crisis has serious defects: some market sectors are benefiting but not the entire economy, and incentives are given without something in return. The car, a product for the middle class and the rich got a tax waiver, the employees of the automakers received an employment guarantee, but the sugar-alcohol sector has neither, not even a guarantee of the labour laws.

In the United States, aid to the automakers was given under the condition of environmental improvements. Here, nothing was requested from the automakers, except to keep labour employed, which creates a distortion in the economy: all Brazilians can be dismissed, except employees of the automotive sector and public officials.

March 30 was the “Day of Cars”, here and in the US. There, the president of General Motors fell in disgrace because the government refused his plan for the adjustment and adaptation to the requirements. I do not want to compare the aid of billions of direct tax-dollars to the coffers of the auto-industry in the US, to the tax waiver here, but insist that this was a great opportunity to induce changes upon the Brazilian auto-manufacturers.

The new president of GM will have 60 days to submit a new plan, but already started to say that the new cars will be different. Frederick Henderson said that the automaker is one or two generations behind in green technology for cars and that the company will have to learn to make money on light cars, and not just SUVs. Another requirement is that of a fiscal adjustment in the company, which will separate good assets and problematic liabilities difficult to digest, such as the employees’ pension fund.

Over in the U.S. it is entirely different, but it is important to see the attitude of governments, in helping the industry. The Obama administration has asked something in return. The Lula government extended the reduction of the IPI-tax for cars and trucks requiring only keeping employment at the same level. It is worth remembering that the manufacturers of trucks did not meet the requirement, from the beginning of 2009, to manufacture only trucks with clean diesel engines. After seven years of delay, they said they were not prepared and needed three more years to deliver here in Brazil, what they deliver in other countries already for years. This, for example, could have been a consideration, a quid pro quo.

The complete absence of concern of the Lula government for the environment is shocking. Yesterday the government reduced the IPI-tax to zero for electric showers, high consumers of energy, and a product which has been abandoned in other countries. Electric showers have had a reduction of the IPI before and have now been set to zero along with other conventional building materials such as cement and brick. The Ministry of the Environment had asked to equalize the tax for the electric shower (which was 5%) with solar panels (which pay 18%). The decision "has not yet been taken” and is still in consideration by the Treasury.

End of March Banco do Brasil got authorized to extend the credit line of the FAT Giro Rural for two years. The credit line is BRL 4 billion (USD 1,8 billion) and the first trance will be paid from April 1. The agribusiness is getting an aid package for the sugar-alcohol sector and the production of meat, two flagrant champions of slave labour. Livestock breeding is directly related to the deforestation of the Amazon. The BNDES (Development Bank) will make a classic rescue operation, supplying BRL 200 million (USD 87 million) for a bankrupt slaughterhouse, which operates in a deforested area. In none of the aid programmes any change in conduct was negotiated, neither in relation to the workers, nor in regard to the environment. This all happens as if the Brazilian government is not of this world.

The vehicle per capita in Brazil, according to Anfavea (Automobile Manufacturers Association), is one vehicle for every eight inhabitants. This is the overall average, taking into account the population and the fleet of 25.5 million cars. Just to compare, the same density in the US. is one vehicle for every 1.2 inhabitants, in Japan it is one vehicle for every 1.7 inhabitants, in Mexico it is one for 4.7 inhabitants, in Argentina it is a car for every 5.2 inhabitants, all data from Anfavea.

The 2000 census said that 54.4 million Brazilians lived in households that had one or more cars, which then represented 32% of the population. Imagining that this percentage has grown a bit, as the sales of vehicles increased - though most new cars have been bought by the same families who had cars before, but some new entered the market - who owns a car belongs to the middle class and from there upwards. The two figures show that the motorized do not reach 40% of the population. The ones who buy a new car are exactly the ones who have a higher income.

The government did something that will benefit only the middle class and the rich, protected only employees of automakers and support the agribusiness without requiring any change of conduct.

Lula is losing the chance to change opened up by the crisis.

90349

An irreversible trend - It's the economy, stupid!

In Brazil energy products derived from sugar cane were responsible for 16% of the total energy supply in 2007, holding the second position in the total of consumed energy, surpassing for the first time hydraulic power, which supplied 14,7% last year, according to preliminary data released in the balance by the Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE), Brazilian’s Energy Research Company. The fossil-oil and derivatives remained in first place as an energy source, with a 36,7% stake.

The energy consumption rose with 13,5 million tonnes and of this more than 70% was from renewable sources. Once again, renewable energy of sugar cane grew most with 41,4%. The share of renewable energy in the matrix of Brazilian energy increased from 44,9% in 2006 to 46,4% in 2007.

The number of vehicles using bio-fuel exceeded five million in April 2008.

According to the chairman of EPE, the domestic consumption of energy, which takes into account any final energy consumption by individuals, companies and processing, grew 5,9%, more than the GDP, which advanced 5,4%. Of that total, according to him, there was an increase of fuel consumption with a 7,3%, against a 5,4% increase of electric energy, compared with 2006.

“For the first time energy supply from cane sugar exceeded hydro electric energy and became the second source of the Brazilian energy matrix, after fossil oil. I believe it is an irreversible trend” the president of EPE stated. At the end of the presentation of the energy balance of 2007 he defended the production of Brazilian ethanol, saying: “In Brazil, we have sufficient soil to increase the production of ethanol without affecting the production of food”, when asked about the criticism that the production of ethanol affects the prices of food in the world market.

Obviously so far so good. Brazil is a world example for renewable (green) energy resources, thanks to President Lula’s cuddling of his darling pet, promoting his fads and fancies with pride and little essential knowledge during all his official international visits with potential buying countries. Stubbornly fighting off his critics as even his Latin American colleagues call him a traitor.

It is a fact, the country’s emergence is partly accelerated by bio-fuels as bio-fuels have become the vanguard of the green-tech revolution. For politicians and corporations the trendy way to go as most of the damage created by bio-fuels is less direct and less obvious.
Indeed only a tiny portion of the Amazônia region is being torn down to grow the sugarcane that fuels most Brazilian cars. The shocking explosion of deforestation is a result a subtle chain reaction: Farmers in the USA are selling one-fifth of their corn to ethanol production, so US soybean farmers are switching to corn, as a result Brazilian soybean farmers are expanding into cattle pastures, so Brazilian cattlemen are displaced to the Amazônia.

Amazônia rain forest pushed back by large areas of soybean fields in the state of Mato Grosso

So far Lula’s ‘green’ positioning on bio-fuels is correct. Sugar growers here have a greener story to tell than do any other bio-fuel producers. They provide 45% of Brazil's fuel (all cars in the country are able to run on ethanol) on only 1% of its arable land. They've reduced fertilizer use while increasing yields and they convert leftover bio-mass into electricity. With the slogan: "Grain is good for bread, not for cars. But sugar is different." their trade group expects production to double by 2015 with little effect on the Amazônia.

So far, they are right. Corn ethanol and soy bio-diesel produce about twice the emissions of gasoline. Sugarcane ethanol is much cleaner, and bio-fuels created from waste products that don't gobble up land have real potential. So, obviously the Amazônia region is safe.

But take a look at the Cerrado, south of the Amazônia region, an ecological jewel in its own right.

Map of the Cerrado eco-region. The limits of the eco-region are marked in yellow.

Photo: NASA

The Amazônia gets the ink, but the Cerrado is the world's most bio-diverse savannah, with 10.000 species of plants, nearly half of which are found nowhere else on earth, and more mammals than the African bush. You can watch toucans and macaws, find puma tracks and admire a carnivorous flower. The Cerrado's trees aren't as tall or dense as the Amazônia ones, so they don't store as much carbon, but the region of some 2 million km2 (50 times the Netherlands) stores its share. Or should we say ‘stored’ its share, as it is transforming by the march of progress - first into pastures, then into sugarcane fields.

Caracteristic vegetation in the Cerrado

But also in another way sugarcane is a shady business. Sugarcane is a typical product from the slave era and that is exactly what it still is.

In 2007, the federal government freed 3.131 “sugar cane” slaves. In the same period the Brazilian Bank for Development released 3,6 billion USD for projects of the sector.

The Cerrado near "The three lakes" - Mato Grosso do Sul

Almost daily there are stories in the news papers about rescue of sugarcane labour (including children) working under - what is now euphemistically called – a “degrading situation”, but in fact is just pure and simple slavery.
But let us just have a look at one:

In March 2008 the papers headlined, after the Ministry of Labour and Employment visited the premises of a company called Brenco (Brazil Renewable Energy Company, note that this Brazilian company has an English name and you will see why):
- Workers of Brenco are living in precarious housing
- Investigating Brenco ends with 17 labourers freed and 140 “slave” contracts terminated

Brenco is commanded by the former president of Petrobras, Brazil’s giant state-owned petroleum company, Henri Phillipe Reischtul.
Brenco has, among its shareholders, the former US President Bill Clinton, James Wolfensohn, former World Bank chairman, Steve Case, former America Online (AOL)-Time Warner, and Vinod Khosla, multimillionaire Indian rooted in the United States who founded the Sun Microsystems. Not by any means the ordinary slave driver you should expect.

But the story does not end here. In August 2008 Brenco reached the headlines of the news papers another time:
The BNDES (Brazilian’s Bank for Development) releases 1,2 billion USD to deploy four units of sugar cane processing in Mato Grosso, Goias and Mato Grosso do Sul (all Cerrado states). In all, the units will install 15 million tonnes of sugar cane grinding capacity per season, producing 1,4 billion litres of alcohol. And the market could sell up to 220 MW of energy through cogeneration. The project has an estimated investment of 1,8 billion USD, with the BNDES entering with 2/3, although, the BNDESPar should get only some 15% to 20% of the shares of the venture. According to the bank, the venture will generate 8.400 jobs and will run a fully mechanized harvesting.



In regard to the “progressive social policy” of a President who was a militant union leader first, do you understand this? No? Neither do I.
But Clinton himself gave us the answer to this apparent contradiction when he was campaigning for US president in 1992: "It's the economy, stupid!"

Note:
For this post I used some text extracts from the article in Time Magazine “The Clean Energy Scam” by Michael Grunwald published March 27, 2008. The story and facts relating to slavery I took from the websites of Leonardo Sakamoto and Repórter Brasil. Both websites are worth visiting, although unfortunately they are only in Portuguese.

80515

“Passamos A Ser Donos Do Nosso Nariz”

At last we are masters of our own nose

The international rating agency Standard & Poor's announced on 30 April the upgrading of Brazil from BB to BBB- (BBB-(minus): is the lowest rating above non-investment grade BB) with which the country joins the group of "reasonably secure countries for investments". On the stock market in São Paulo (Bovespa) the value of shares rose dramatically after the news broke, while the shares of Brazilian companies listed on the stock exchange in New York joined the euphoria.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva commemorated the promotion to "investment grade" with the words:
"I don’t know how to pronounce the word, nor what it means, but if it is translated into a language Brazilians understand, then it seems, that Brazil is classified as a serious country … .. It is a victory for the Brazilian people, which waited for this moment for years. With this new classification, there is no doubt that Brazil is now a serious country." Clearly alluding to the infamous words of Charles de Gaulle.
According to Lula, the upgrading is of great importance. "It is the guarantee that we are now master of our own nose, and can decide on a policy which we deem suitable for Brazil."

Of course the national press was full of praise and positive analysis and even the international press could not remain at the sideline to extol Brazil to the skies.

The British "The Independent" suggested that the Brazilian economy undergoes a "carnivalesque experience.”
The "Financial Times", meanwhile, put Brazil “among the first countries on the investment list", although it warned that the prevailing high interest rates could impede economic growth.
The French newspaper "Les Echos" wrote that the country "is bathing in sweet euphoria" referring to the absurd stock market rise of 6% in São Paulo within one day.
The Spanish "El País" pointed out that the addition of Brazil to the list of "secure countries" will encourage investors to switch from the speculative markets to a secure investment in this country."
Economists expect that some 1,000 billion USdollar will enter the country.

The essential advantage of the change to investment grade is that large institutional investors, who according to their statutes only can invest in low risk assets, are now allowed to invest in Brazil, as the classification is an instrument that reflects the risk of a country being capable of complying with its obligations. The higher the classification, the lower the risk, and with it the likelihood that investment capital will enter the country.

The president of the Central Bank, Henrique Meirelles (see photo), called the S&P decision "very significant." For him, it shows that Brazil has sufficient immunity against external shocks.

But if everything is so positively judged by everyone, why do I feel so worried about it.
Fortunately I am not the only one as a few critical comments appear on various blogs. Just let’s take one. A résumé of the blog of Jose Paulo Kupfer, a renowned Brazilian journalist.

Résumé: By upgrading Brazil, S&P has completely ignored its own fundamental parameters. Where are the tax reforms, the redesign of the labour legislation and the reconstruction of the social security? And what about the correlation between government debt and GDP, which should be 30%, but actually is more than 40%. And Jose ends by saying: "It looks like, that Brazil has given some "grant" to the "dilapidated" reputation of S&P."

I conclude with my own vision.
Across the board the new classification by S&P has induced euphoria. However, it is questionable whether that is based on real grounds. I admit that the elevated standards for Brazil - to investment grade - will cause an influx of foreign capital. As a consequence, many Brazilian companies can negotiate loans against better conditions abroad, but at the same time, many smaller and medium-sized Brazilian production companies will be pushed even harder to keep up their export due to the USdollar falling further against the real. Although the volume of Brazilian exports measured in USdollars will not diminish, as the overwhelming part consists of commodities (not enriched raw materials and agricultural products), which prices are determined by the market in Chicago, many companies with manufactured products are forced to discontinue their exports. It is obvious, that it will not be beneficial to the country as all manufacturing companies have to concentrate exclusively on the home market. Without doubt the home market will grow, but never to the extent that it will benefit from the S&P classification. Exports of manufactured products will decrease, while the imports increase, both due to the declining value of the USdollar. The trade balance will, as a consequence, entirely rely on the export of commodities whose price is determined by Chicago in which Brazil merely is the direct object. No significant exports in manufactured products with added value almost always lead to a fatal blow to a country.

But there is yet another side to the new upgrading of S&P, which is much more dangerous and could even be disastrous. With the crisis in the U.S. housing market, S&P (and other financial graduators) demonstrated its absolute ignorance, or its involvement in the manipulation of the banking system. It would not be the first time that S & P and its peers manipulate an economy of a country, after firstly praising it into the sky, and then opening the door to hell for the mere benefit of the big money guys.
What is more, we live in a special time cycle. The valuation of the real is only partly due to the performance of Brazil itself and for the other part to the fact that the U.S. is ruled by the worst president of all time and that in an election year the economic cycle of a free fall of the currency always can be observed. That means that after the U.S. presidential elections have given certainty about the successor, the dollar will rise worldwide, as the financial institutions "suddenly" discover new confidence in the economy of the country. This will certainly happen if Barack Obama is elected as president. In the unlikely event that John McCain will be president, I believe, the dollar will probably continue its free fall.

This means that in 2009 another ratio will be seen between the dollar and the real. But beginning in 2009 Brazil seriously starts thinking about the succession of Lula. Herewith we enter the next time cycle of elections, which will have a negative impact on the position of (in this case) the real. We have also seen this during the presidential election to replace the predecessor of Lula, during which the real grossly was manipulated (not to use the word speculated) by the financial institutions with the ABN / AMRO as the frontrunner. If we run in a situation that the U.S. economy shows an improvement, as a result of the appointment of a new president and the period before the Brazilian presidential elections shows no absolute clarity about Lula's successor, the value of the real against the dollar will deteriorate.
That is also the moment the international financial world will withdraw its investments from Brazil to profit in the short term.

I shall illustrate this danger. I read in ValorOnLine, the following:
"The private sector has been hopeful about reducing the financial costs due to the upgrading.
For Renato Vale, president of CCR, one of the largest transport companies in the country, Labor Day was one big party. The CCR, which in March won a concession for a piece of the Rodoanel in São Paulo, is currently negotiating abroad a loan of 1.6 billion reais to be paid to the government of São Paulo. The upgrading of Brazil means a savings of several million USdollars in drawing expenditures on foreign funds."

Ok, let’s assume that CCR indeed attracts BRR 1.6 billion (the rate is now USD = 1.60 BRR, thus USD 1 billion) with an interest rate of 5% from the international market. The investor pays in USdollars and both interest and principal have to be paid back in USdollars. 5% interest means an annual interest charge of USD 50 million or 80 million BRR. Suppose he has a payback period of 10 years. That represents is an annual redemption of 100 million USD or 160 million BRR. Total = 150 million USD = 240 million BRR.
I believe the USdollar will return at a rate of around 2.25 BRR, as a result of two presidential elections, restoration of the US economy, the future expectations of the Chicago commodities market, rising imports and the lack of Brazilian exports of products with added value.
This leads for CCR in a rise in annual payments of 240 million to 337 million BRR. It is of no importance whether the dollar changes +5% +10% or in any other different value. The fact remains that a Brazilian company suddenly is facing much higher operating costs and a much higher debt.

We have seen this before. In Pará during the government of Fernando Henrique Cardoso, shipping companies in the Amazônia region could arrange loans from the BNDES (National Development Bank) to build ships for the expansion of the transport capacity in the region. The loans were in USdollars (rate 1:1), although the revenues of the companies were in BRR. We do not have to detail here (see above) what happened during the election year of FHC/Lula (picture right). Suddenly, but insurmountably, the companies faced payments, which were 2 to 3 times higher, than they were accustomed to. It took many on the verge of bankruptcy.
Brazil is not (yet) in a position to withstand foreign manipulation or speculation as the country’s economic cushion is (still) too fragile.
History repeats itself. Always.

I'm afraid that's Lula’s: “Passamos a ser donos do nosso nariz”, will end up with people getting their nose pinched.

80469 - cartoons courtesy of J. Bosco/O Liberal