“Passamos A Ser Donos Do Nosso Nariz”

At last we are masters of our own nose

The international rating agency Standard & Poor's announced on 30 April the upgrading of Brazil from BB to BBB- (BBB-(minus): is the lowest rating above non-investment grade BB) with which the country joins the group of "reasonably secure countries for investments". On the stock market in São Paulo (Bovespa) the value of shares rose dramatically after the news broke, while the shares of Brazilian companies listed on the stock exchange in New York joined the euphoria.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva commemorated the promotion to "investment grade" with the words:
"I don’t know how to pronounce the word, nor what it means, but if it is translated into a language Brazilians understand, then it seems, that Brazil is classified as a serious country … .. It is a victory for the Brazilian people, which waited for this moment for years. With this new classification, there is no doubt that Brazil is now a serious country." Clearly alluding to the infamous words of Charles de Gaulle.
According to Lula, the upgrading is of great importance. "It is the guarantee that we are now master of our own nose, and can decide on a policy which we deem suitable for Brazil."

Of course the national press was full of praise and positive analysis and even the international press could not remain at the sideline to extol Brazil to the skies.

The British "The Independent" suggested that the Brazilian economy undergoes a "carnivalesque experience.”
The "Financial Times", meanwhile, put Brazil “among the first countries on the investment list", although it warned that the prevailing high interest rates could impede economic growth.
The French newspaper "Les Echos" wrote that the country "is bathing in sweet euphoria" referring to the absurd stock market rise of 6% in São Paulo within one day.
The Spanish "El País" pointed out that the addition of Brazil to the list of "secure countries" will encourage investors to switch from the speculative markets to a secure investment in this country."
Economists expect that some 1,000 billion USdollar will enter the country.

The essential advantage of the change to investment grade is that large institutional investors, who according to their statutes only can invest in low risk assets, are now allowed to invest in Brazil, as the classification is an instrument that reflects the risk of a country being capable of complying with its obligations. The higher the classification, the lower the risk, and with it the likelihood that investment capital will enter the country.

The president of the Central Bank, Henrique Meirelles (see photo), called the S&P decision "very significant." For him, it shows that Brazil has sufficient immunity against external shocks.

But if everything is so positively judged by everyone, why do I feel so worried about it.
Fortunately I am not the only one as a few critical comments appear on various blogs. Just let’s take one. A résumé of the blog of Jose Paulo Kupfer, a renowned Brazilian journalist.

Résumé: By upgrading Brazil, S&P has completely ignored its own fundamental parameters. Where are the tax reforms, the redesign of the labour legislation and the reconstruction of the social security? And what about the correlation between government debt and GDP, which should be 30%, but actually is more than 40%. And Jose ends by saying: "It looks like, that Brazil has given some "grant" to the "dilapidated" reputation of S&P."

I conclude with my own vision.
Across the board the new classification by S&P has induced euphoria. However, it is questionable whether that is based on real grounds. I admit that the elevated standards for Brazil - to investment grade - will cause an influx of foreign capital. As a consequence, many Brazilian companies can negotiate loans against better conditions abroad, but at the same time, many smaller and medium-sized Brazilian production companies will be pushed even harder to keep up their export due to the USdollar falling further against the real. Although the volume of Brazilian exports measured in USdollars will not diminish, as the overwhelming part consists of commodities (not enriched raw materials and agricultural products), which prices are determined by the market in Chicago, many companies with manufactured products are forced to discontinue their exports. It is obvious, that it will not be beneficial to the country as all manufacturing companies have to concentrate exclusively on the home market. Without doubt the home market will grow, but never to the extent that it will benefit from the S&P classification. Exports of manufactured products will decrease, while the imports increase, both due to the declining value of the USdollar. The trade balance will, as a consequence, entirely rely on the export of commodities whose price is determined by Chicago in which Brazil merely is the direct object. No significant exports in manufactured products with added value almost always lead to a fatal blow to a country.

But there is yet another side to the new upgrading of S&P, which is much more dangerous and could even be disastrous. With the crisis in the U.S. housing market, S&P (and other financial graduators) demonstrated its absolute ignorance, or its involvement in the manipulation of the banking system. It would not be the first time that S & P and its peers manipulate an economy of a country, after firstly praising it into the sky, and then opening the door to hell for the mere benefit of the big money guys.
What is more, we live in a special time cycle. The valuation of the real is only partly due to the performance of Brazil itself and for the other part to the fact that the U.S. is ruled by the worst president of all time and that in an election year the economic cycle of a free fall of the currency always can be observed. That means that after the U.S. presidential elections have given certainty about the successor, the dollar will rise worldwide, as the financial institutions "suddenly" discover new confidence in the economy of the country. This will certainly happen if Barack Obama is elected as president. In the unlikely event that John McCain will be president, I believe, the dollar will probably continue its free fall.

This means that in 2009 another ratio will be seen between the dollar and the real. But beginning in 2009 Brazil seriously starts thinking about the succession of Lula. Herewith we enter the next time cycle of elections, which will have a negative impact on the position of (in this case) the real. We have also seen this during the presidential election to replace the predecessor of Lula, during which the real grossly was manipulated (not to use the word speculated) by the financial institutions with the ABN / AMRO as the frontrunner. If we run in a situation that the U.S. economy shows an improvement, as a result of the appointment of a new president and the period before the Brazilian presidential elections shows no absolute clarity about Lula's successor, the value of the real against the dollar will deteriorate.
That is also the moment the international financial world will withdraw its investments from Brazil to profit in the short term.

I shall illustrate this danger. I read in ValorOnLine, the following:
"The private sector has been hopeful about reducing the financial costs due to the upgrading.
For Renato Vale, president of CCR, one of the largest transport companies in the country, Labor Day was one big party. The CCR, which in March won a concession for a piece of the Rodoanel in São Paulo, is currently negotiating abroad a loan of 1.6 billion reais to be paid to the government of São Paulo. The upgrading of Brazil means a savings of several million USdollars in drawing expenditures on foreign funds."

Ok, let’s assume that CCR indeed attracts BRR 1.6 billion (the rate is now USD = 1.60 BRR, thus USD 1 billion) with an interest rate of 5% from the international market. The investor pays in USdollars and both interest and principal have to be paid back in USdollars. 5% interest means an annual interest charge of USD 50 million or 80 million BRR. Suppose he has a payback period of 10 years. That represents is an annual redemption of 100 million USD or 160 million BRR. Total = 150 million USD = 240 million BRR.
I believe the USdollar will return at a rate of around 2.25 BRR, as a result of two presidential elections, restoration of the US economy, the future expectations of the Chicago commodities market, rising imports and the lack of Brazilian exports of products with added value.
This leads for CCR in a rise in annual payments of 240 million to 337 million BRR. It is of no importance whether the dollar changes +5% +10% or in any other different value. The fact remains that a Brazilian company suddenly is facing much higher operating costs and a much higher debt.

We have seen this before. In Pará during the government of Fernando Henrique Cardoso, shipping companies in the Amazônia region could arrange loans from the BNDES (National Development Bank) to build ships for the expansion of the transport capacity in the region. The loans were in USdollars (rate 1:1), although the revenues of the companies were in BRR. We do not have to detail here (see above) what happened during the election year of FHC/Lula (picture right). Suddenly, but insurmountably, the companies faced payments, which were 2 to 3 times higher, than they were accustomed to. It took many on the verge of bankruptcy.
Brazil is not (yet) in a position to withstand foreign manipulation or speculation as the country’s economic cushion is (still) too fragile.
History repeats itself. Always.

I'm afraid that's Lula’s: “Passamos a ser donos do nosso nariz”, will end up with people getting their nose pinched.

80469 - cartoons courtesy of J. Bosco/O Liberal

Do They Blow-Up Christ, the Redeemer?

In an interview in the last issue of the Brazilian weekly Veja the actor Paulo César Pereio spoke about his campaign to get Christ, the Redeemer, one of the Seven New Wonders of the World, imploded. And all that solely because he thinks the statue is a blot to the landscape.

(For the uneducated (I had to look it up myself) imploding is bursting inwards i.e. from the outside to the inside in contrast to explode where the object bursts outwards thus from the inside to the outside, burying Rio de Janeiro under a shower of concrete blocks)

Paulo continues to say: “That statue is an improper disturbance of the landscape. The mountain on which it stands is of great beauty. Christ just disturbs the panoramic view. Why should we maintain such an idiotic puppet there at the top of the mountain?”

The actor (for the reader who never heard of Paulo César Pereio, here is his wiki-link) calls the election of the statue as one of the Seven Wonders of the World, absurd and confirms to have hired a publicity agency to gather signatures for his campaign.

Of course the reactions and comments were rife. “Christ, the Redeemer is homage to Jesus Christ, in other words a religious symbol for the majority of the Brazilian Christians and even for the “heathens”, it is one of the cultural and touristy attractions of Rio de Janeiro.”

The statue stands 39,6 meters (130 ft) high, weighs 700 tons, and is situated at the peak of the 700 m (2,296 ft) Corcovado mountain in the Tijuca Forest National Park, from which it oversees the city of Rio de Janeiro.

The idea to erect a large statue on top of the Corcovado dates from around 1850, but was brushed away in 1889, as Brazil became a republic, with laws separating church and state. The second proposal however, done in 1922, was successful.
The local engineer Heitor da Silva Costa made the first designs of the statue, while the visual artist Carlos Oswald did the final design of the monument, which was sculptured by Paul Landowski, a French sculptor of Polish origin.
A group of engineers and technicians studied Landowski’s plans and decided to use a reinforced concrete structure, which was designed by Albert Caquot.
The outer layers are made from soapstone, as it has sustainable qualities and is easy to carve.

Various historians take the view that the monument was a present from France to Brazil as compensation for the various French attempts to colonise parts of Brazil. This is not an unbelievable supposition as France always has been generous donating statues, among which New York’s Statue of Liberty from 1886.

Modernizing and Devotion go hand in hand
From 20 Jan 2003 on the “cariocas” and the tourists don’t need to climb anymore the 200 carved out steps, which led to the statue. From that day, St Sebastian’s Day, Rio’s patron saint, a set of elevators and escalators were set in motion.

An “invisible” construction
As everybody is used to have an unobstructed view of the statue from any angle and corner of the city, the architect Mauricio Prochnik designed a construction which followed the contours of the northern side of the mountain and be camouflaged by the trees. The design intended to minimize the impact of such a large-scale construction as elevators and escalators on the environment and the visual appearance. The complete construction is painted in a variety of grades of green, and special sun ray reflecting glass was installed. The only part visible is the steel construction, made from special anti-corrosive steel, on which the elevators, escalators and walkways rest.
The 7th of July 2007 Christ, the Redeemer was added to the list of Seven Wonders of the New World published by the in Switzerland based The New Open World Corporation. By the way, the title is not recognised by Unesco.

And now Christ, the Redeemer faces an implosion. But even before the plans could be executed the statue was subject to heated discussions, which divided the country in Catholics and Protestants (ha, the right word). Although it is probably without doubt, that many Protestants from around the world are visiting the statue, the first leaders of the Baptist Church started a controversy on religious principals.

The followers of the Baptist Churches released on 22 of March, 1923 an official note expressing their disgust about the planned construction of Christ, the Redeemer. The note stated, that the construction “will be a portentous prove of idolatry by the Church of Rome” and that it will be an offence to God. “The day this crime will be executed, all real Christians of Brazil should unite in a penance to ask God not to attribute this mortal sin, which is the sole responsibility of the Roman Catholic Church and the government leaders, to the whole of Brazil.” The note continues with “those who have this awkward idea to erect this monument of Christ, the Redeemer, do not have the intention to praise to Christ, but solely want to glorify the Roman Catholicism. ..... They, who pretend to praise to Christ, affront Him and do just that which He absolutely forbade - namely visualise Him in a statue.”

Without doubt Paulo César Pereio's campaign to implode Christ, the Redeemer, will be supported by the Baptists. But forget it, as money always brings home the bacon, so will this tourist attraction, religiously controversial or not, stay where it is. Undisturbed and well cared for.

P.S. Please, don’t mistake this Christ, the Redeemer with the statue, with the same name, high in the Andes on the border of Argentina with Chile. That’s another statue and another story.

80489

An unwelcome pet - A cobra in the garden

In Brazil and particularly in the Amazon region the word: cobra is used for snake. Any snake is called cobra, whatever the scientific or popular name. A snake is a cobra and a cobra is a snake. Period. So the cobra is going to town. The deforestation of the Amazon causes an invasion of cobras in the neighbourhoods of Belém, according to Ibama, the governmental environment institute. Only this year already 21 cobras are reported by the citizenry, while last year an average of 2 reports per month came in.

Up till now no venomous snake has been caught, although they found species of some 3 meter long. Imagine the fear of the people to step into their garden with the chance to stand eye to eye with a 3 meter long cobra ready to attack. According to Ibama, the infiltration of cobras in the town is a direct result of the illegal deforestation activities in the areas around Belém.
"The deforestation destroys the habitat of the snakes and they move into town", declares a spokeswoman for Ibama. After they have caught the cobras Ibama brings them to local zoological gardens or places them back into the natural habitat of ecological reservations.

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Brazilian Beauty Beats France’s First-Lady

When in April this year, the photo collection of Gert Elfering was auctioned by Christie’s in New York, it was only the picture of France’s first-lady Carla Bruni, which picked up the attention of the world press. Although the polemic nude photograph made by Michel Comte in 1993, and before the auction estimated at USD 4.000, did USD 91.000, it was not the highest priced one.

In the auction of the 135 photographs of the German collector Gert Elfering the nude of Carla Bruni “lost” from the nudes of Gisele Bündchen and Kate Moss both photographed by Irving Penn. The nude picture of Gisele (estimated before the auction at USD 60.000) went for USD 193.000 and the Kate Moss’ nude reached USD 97.000.

The results of the auction proved that Brazilian beauty is always highly valued by large margins. For the uneducated who do not know Gisele Bündchen, the following: With 27 years she is the world’s most famous Brazilian model, arguably the No. 1 in fashion shows and arguably the best paid one, as she made 33 million USD between June 2005 and July 2006, while her wealth is estimated at 150 million USD.

Among the other pieces auctioned were photographs of Brigitte Bardot, Lauren Hutton, Pablo Picasso and four psychedelic pictures of the Beatles........ continue reading and view the photographs

Plagiarism in Optima Forma - "Bikini Peaking Jeans"

Although the last years many a high technological and breathtaking innovation originates from Japan, for years on end they have been infamous for their copying and apparently they still do so.

The British press divulged a (what they called) novelty in the world of fashion: the jeans of Sanna’s Brazil Fashion. The creation, which mixes the low designed jeans with the vision of a part of a bikini underneath is from a brand unknown in Brazil, although it is promoted as Brazilian Fashion. Navigating the internet you will discover that it is a Japanese brand.
Reportedly the jeans are developed in Japan, and according to the labels manufactured in Brazil. To uphold the Brazilian image, they are sold in the Brazilian sizes, which are different to the standards used in Europe and the US.

But apparently the British are not well-known with the Brazilian Fashion, being famous for its sexy designs, such as the dental floss bikini (fio dental) and many other designs, as the Brazilian women are not afraid or ashamed to show their bodies or at least a part there of.

So, Sanna’s Brazil Fashion jeans are no novelty at all, as the Brazilian jeans brand Zoomp introduced the "bikini peaking jeans" already in their Summer Collection of 2006.
Judge for yourself. The first picture is from Zoomp, the other ones appear at the website of Sansa.
Plagiarism in optima forma.

80495

Latin America moves a bit more to the left

After 61 years of centre-right hegemony of the Partido Colorado, of which the most infamous exponent was the dictator Alfredo Stroessner (1954-1989) and the last Óscar Nicanor Duarte Frutos who during his 5 year mandate executed a reasonable social-economic policy, we see (as I some time ago wrote in my post “The red rascals of Latin America”), now a clear move to the left after the conquest of the presidential elections in Paraguay last Sunday by Fernando Lugo, an ex-bishop and advocate of the liberation theology.
With more than 80% of the 2,8 million votes counted, of which 40,17% in his favour and leading his closest opponent, Bianca Ovelar, an ex-minister of education, with almost 10% Lugo claimed the victory.

The today 56 year old Lugo became a Roman Catholic priest in 1977 and was during 5 years a missionary in Ecuador, where he came in contact with the liberation theology. As bishop in Paraguay he supported the impoverished small farmers in their struggle against the large landowners.
According to the New York Times it is however a debatable question whether Lugo can be president. The constitution of Paraguay prohibits ecclesiastical officers to fulfil politic functions. After Fernando Lugo voluntarily resigned and proclaimed his political ambitions Christmas 2006, Rome officially refused to accept his resignation. The NYT reports that the Vatican never has honoured the resignation, but other sources consider this proposition a non-issue, as Lugo himself has abandoned the priesthood, but still it might lead to some constitutional lawsuit.

Having been candidate for the “Aliança Patriótica para a Mudança” (Patriotic Alliance for Change), Lugo has the support of social movements, centre and left wing political parties and the Partido Liberal Radical Autêntico (PLRA), the right wing radical liberal party.
This alliance is a bit strange, as the Partido Liberal, the second largest party in the country, is typical right wing conservative and always has been in the opposition, at the other hand the other parties are left wing socialistic and are heavenly supported by small farmer movements. This might arise some problems when Lugo starts to shape his government.
But the ex-bishop must have an extensive experience beating up against the wind regarding his proclaimed liberation theology and at the same time being a priest of the ultra right orthodox and very conservative Roman Catholic Church, which always choose the wealthy side of society in particular in countries as Paraguay. The Church still paints the liberation theology as a Marxist movement

When he announced his candidacy for the presidency his rivals put him in one line with the leftist leaders that emerged in Latin America over the last few years. They did not compare him with moderate social-democrats as Michelle Bachelet of Chile and Lula of Brazil, but with Hugo Chavez or Rafael Correa, the leftist president of Ecuador and now Lugo is definitively the last one in the line of acting leftist oriented presidents in Latin America, where Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Uruguay leaded the way.

The new president faces an almost impossible task to solve the large variety of problems within a mandate of 5 years (the constitution does not allow re-election). First of all, there is the corruption. Since the dictatorial reign of General Alfredo Stroessner, Paraguay has been transformed into one of the most corrupt countries of Latin America. As a consequence more than 33% of the populace lives below the poverty level. He has to honour his promises to the poor small farmers to regulate a more honest division of the available land, which certainly will face heavy opposition of the large landowners. And on top of all that, he will not have any money available to execute his plans, as the budget is tied up and all important and less important public offices are controlled by Partido Colorado supporters.
Putting it as priority number one during his election period Lugo has to find a solution for the dispute with his neighbour Brazil, regarding the power plant of Itaipu. Lugo wants to renegotiate the price Brazil is paying for the energy supplied by this bi-national power plant. The hydro-electrical power plant in Itaipu is located at the border of the two countries and belongs to neither of them. Both countries could claim 50% of the generated energy, but Brazil consumes 90% as Paraguay does not need more than 10%. Lugo argues that Brazil is paying too low a price for the energy, which belongs to the Paraguayan part, but is purchased by Brazil. If there will be no new agreement and the energy supply will be interrupted a large part of the industrial park of São Paulo (responsible for 35% of Brazilian’s GNP) will come to a stand still.

That the issue is of high priority might be concluded from the fact that shortly after the ballot boxes closed and the first polls indicated a victory for Lugo, the daily ABC Color, the most important paper in the country, came with an article stating that the first priority of the new government should be the renegotiation of the Itaipu-contract.

Albeit Lula is ideologically close to Lugo, the two have steered clear one from the other for a long time, but the coming days should intensify the contact, in spite of Lula’s public statement that it is unthinkable to renegotiate Itaipu. A second Paraguayan-Brazilian war is of course out of the question and what is Brazilian natural leadership of Latin America worth, if it is not willing to help an impoverished neighbour.

photo's: Reuters
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"Bush, meu filho, resolve tua crise" - "Bush, my son, solve your crisis”

During an encounter in Recife(PE) between Brazilian and Mexican businessmen, president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said, that an economic crisis in the USA and the preservation of the self-esteem of the Brazilian entrepreneurs are the only two matters of his concern in relation to the Brazilian economy.

Lula confirmed that he had called the president of North-America George W. Bush twice to tell him to get hold of the crisis, consequently his colleague, as Lula had learned, had been a bit irritated by the comments the Brazilian president made.
“I called him and said, Bush, my son, the problem is as follows, we have been 26 years without [economic] grow. Now as we start to grow, you disturb it. Solve your crisis.”

He continued to state that Brazil has the knowledge to solve the bank crisis, referring to Proer, a programme created to recuperate the financial institutions which faced bankruptcy in the nineties of the last century. “When they need it, we will send them [USA] this technology.” Lula said.

Lula concluded his speech speaking about the expansion of the Brazilian-Mexico trade with an explanation of the PAC (Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento = Program to Accelerate the Economic Grow), which stimulates the home market and compared the Bolsa Família (program for financial support to the poor) with the miraculous multiplication of bread, one of the miracles attributed to Jesus Christ.
“The multiplication of the breads, of which Christ spoke, is exactly that.” he confirmed.

80380
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Climate Change and Evolution - The Amazônia

During a virtual safari visitors of the Futuroscope in Poitiers (France) can learn about future animals. An exposition shows how the fauna of our planet will be over some million years.

It is not likely that anyone of us will have the pleasure to experience the changes and meet the future animals personally, but it is a good thing to know how our fauna will evolve taking into account our destructive way-of-life.
The exposition is a result of scientific studies and projections with regards to the influence of climate change and future landslides. The sketched environment and the animals are the results of a theory developed by British scientists, who studied the geological movements of the earth, the climate and the capacity of the fauna to adapt itself towards its new habitat.

As I live in the delta of the Amazônia I restrict this overview to the “evolution” of the Amazônia fauna referring to the pictures (from top to bottom), whereas, as far as, known the “ancestor” is situated aside of the “evolved” descendant.

The “Baboukari” is the descendant of the “White Uacari Monkey with the Red Face” (Cacajo calvus), which, according to researchers can only be found in the Amazônia reservation Mamirauá. Little is known about the Uacari, except that it is already close to extinction. In the theory of the future the “baboukari” will not live in trees any longer as there will be no more trees in the Amazônia. The baboukari will use their tail, not for balancing between branches, but to communicate with each other in the high vegetation of the savannah like habitat, which is the future of the Amazônia region.

The “Tortunossauro” evolves from the Giant Tortoise (Podocnemis expansa). In 100 million years this tortoise will be the largest land animal with a height of 7 meters. Largest than the dinosaur, he will weigh some 120 metric tons, 40 times an elephant. Without having to face a predator he will loose the better part of his shell.
The present Amazônia tortoise is a nocturnal animal, living in groups and able to live up to a 100 years. He feeds with plants and fish, is a freshwater animal, located in the Amazônia River and its estuaries. Adults can reach 80 cm in length and 60 cm in width, weighing up to 60 kg.

Although the descendant of this rodent, the capivara (Hydrochaeris hydrochaeris), has a more densely covered skin, the "cuirasson" will have a densely covered shell with callous spines, like a porcupine.
The capivara is world’s largest rodent. It adores to bath in the river and may stay there for hours with just its snout above the water surface. A docile herbivore with a length of 1 meter. Its meat is much appreciated by the native inhabitants of the Amazônia and thus consumed lavishly.

This future terrestrial bird seems to have been evolved from the turkey or the ostrich. Thanks to its sturdy legs it will be one of the fastest predators of the Amazônia. It will find his food on the ground and uses its wings just to balance during a run similar as to ostriches.

The “Large Blue Glider” will live on the mountaintops. As it is in the air most of its time the evolution has given it two pairs of wings with 15 meter wingspread. To be protected against the sun, the feathers are metal blue to reflect the sun rays.

It is a pity really that the exposition does not show a projection of the future human being. Probably he already has cooked his goose and belongs as so many animals to the extinct species.




BBC Photogalery
source: IG/BBC Brasil
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Eco-friendly Condom From The Amazon

It is unlikely you ever will get a chance to use the “Green Johnny”, a male preservative based on eco-friendly extracted natural latex from the Amazônia rainforest. Maybe when you ever visit Brazil during the carnival or one of the holiday centres you might be offered one of the 120 million condoms courtesy of the federal government of Brazil. Brazil’s Public Health Ministry distributes the free condoms as part of its successful Health Programs to combat STD/Aids.

Up till now the approx. 120 million condoms are imported from China, South Korea and Thailand, made from cultivated rubber trees. That will change soon.

Natex, a Brazilian company founded by the Public Health Ministry and the government of the federal state of Acre, will manufacture male preservatives from pure natural latex extracted from the Amazon rainforest in a sustainable and eco-friendly way. The condoms will be solely sold to the federal government for its national program to combat STD/Aids.
The expected initial production will be 100 million pieces a year. The factory, the only one in the world to use natural latex as raw material, will have a future capacity of 270 million condoms a year. The construction of the factory is based upon sustainable, social and environmental development.
Natex will create 150 direct jobs and employ 700 native families of the Chico Mendes reservation for the supply of the raw material. It is estimated that in the Amazon rainforest of Acre some 70.000 native rubber tappers are active.

source: Flores & Versos
80445

Operação “Arco de Fogo” - Operation “Arc of Fire”

By the end of March the results of the first month of the Operation “Arc of Fire” started to be visualised. Operation “Arco de Fogo” is a hard police action, initiated by the federal government to combat the illegal deforestation of the Amazônia.

Approximately 35% of all illegal deforestation in the federal state of Pará is feeding the charcoal ovens; the other part is selective log cutting of noble wood species. Illegal charcoal is purchased by legal companies, and exported mainly to China and the USA to be used in the steel production process.
But the demand for charcoal is only one of the factors causing the deforestation. Brazil's Environment Ministry places more of the blame on farmers who clear large areas in the rainforest to create soybean fields and cattle ranches. Officials say that ranching and farming are responsible for up to 80 percent of total deforestation nationwide.

In Aug.2007 Lula and his government celebrated the fact that for the third consecutive year deforestation in the Amazônia had decreased almost to the historical lowest level of 1991 of 11.030 km2 (roughly 25% of a country the size of Holland), while the Environment Minister Marina Silva claimed that the government policy had saved 20.000 birds, 70.000 primates and some 600 million trees from being cut illegally. However in the same month satellites registered 16.592 fires, mainly in the Amazônia area and illegal deforestation had restarted at a large scale.
According to figures supplied by Marina Silva deforestation between August and November 2007 increased with 10%, mainly due to the delayed start of the rainy season, which enabled the loggers to extract the lumber from the forest to almost the end of the year.

A quick response was evidently required and Lula’s decree prohibited any sale of agriculture products, and imposed fines on all trade of meat, soy and other products originating from illegally deforested areas.
Concentrating on 36 municipalities in the Amazônia responsible for more than 50% of all illegal logging Ibama (the federal environment bureau) initiated its activities, with this decree in hand, to effectively combat the deforestation.
The operation was baptized: “Arco de Fogo” (Arc of Fire).

Operation “Arco de Fogo”, which started on the 26th of February and focused on Tailândia, a little town in the south of the state Pará, is run by Ibama with warlike support of some 1.000 military, civil and federal police agents and contingents of the national security forces. The results after its first month of action are staggering: 23 million BRR (9 million euro) in fines. Furthermore 23.300 m3 illegal logs confiscated, while 14 sawmills and 25 charcoal companies were shut down in an area of 4.200 hectares where illegal deforestation was detected.
The action did not restrict to confiscating the illegal lumber or by fining the company owners, but went a step further by dismantling illegal sawmills and razing illegal charcoal ovens to the ground. By the 25th of March, 53 sawmills were inspected, of which 14 shut down and dismantled and 1.175 charcoal ovens completely demolished. Those destroyed ovens alone would have consumed about 23.000 young trees in one month, according to average production rates.
The environmental action groups were delirious.

Given the scope of the operation it is more than likely that the name Tailândia never ever will be connected to environmental crimes, if, at least, the little town will not be wiped out completely.

The journalist Valterlucio Bessa Campelo comes in his article published in Agência Amazônia with a nicely constructed economic analysis, which I recount here. In Brazil there is a lack of reliable demographic figures and therefore Valterlucio interpolates existing figures to come to a mathematical conclusion for Tailândia.
But let’s have a look at the town Tailândia first. Tailândia has 64.000 inhabitants, a Gross National Product (GNP) in 2005 of 266 million BRR (105 million euro), of which the lumber activities represent (2006) some 67,2 million BRR (26,4 million euro) and the agriculture 28,0 million BRR (11 million euro). On the national Human Development Index (HDI) *) Tailândia figures as number 3046. In 2007 the town received 10,6 million BRR (4,156 million euro = 650 euro per capita) for education, health care etc., from the federal tax funds.

As we can see, the economy of Tailândia leans heavily on the exploration of wood products, whose value represents twice the value generated by agriculture activities. According to data from the IBGE*) some 1.400.000 m3 logs are produced annually in this area, representing 25% of the municipal GNP.
In the opinion of the federal government: All of them illegal.

A recent study carried out by the IBGE indicates that for every 1.000 m3 of logged lumber 15 jobs are created. When we transfer this figure to Tailândia we see 21.000 jobs, of which, according to another study, in average 1/3 is direct labour and 2/3 indirect. The calculation for Tailândia ends up with 7.000 direct jobs in the lumber industry.
In the opinion of the federal government: All of them illegal.

An analysis released by the government of Pará shows that 48% of the total populace is employable, of which 92,7% has indeed a job. When we transfer these indices to Tailândia we see that out of the 64.000 inhabitants, 30.720 are employable of which 28.477 have a job.
In other words of all inhabitants older than 10 years, regardless of what type of work, 25% or 7.000 have a job in the lumber industry. If and when this activity in Tailândia is eliminated the unemployment figure rises from 7,3% to 30%.

The above reconstructed figures help to understand the magnitude of the problem which develops when operations as “Arco de Fogo” are extended to other municipalities and federal states. The question is: leads an operation, which only criminalises the deforestation to a sustainable solution of the problem.
Keep in mind, that Tailândia only represents a minuscule fraction of the deforestation in Brazil.

It should be prudent, and particularly for a Lula, telling everybody his government has a socialistic signature, when operations combating the deforestation of the Amazônia go hand in hand with the necessary social actions to remain the local economy at its level. It is a mistake to belief that thousands of labourers in the lumber industry, direct or indirect, illegal or not, will not be stimulated by the instigating words of the lumber barons. The labourer thinks economically. He wants a job, preferably one he knows best. If he defends the interests of the lumber baron, he defends his income. He might not do that, if an alternative is available.

Apparently, after its operation in Tailândia, Ibama came to the same conclusion. According to the director of Ibama in Pará, Aníbal Picanço, social programs are getting in place to minimize the economic impact of the operation, as have been seen in Tailândia, where the local commerce came to a full stop after the sawmills were fined and shut down and the charcoal ovens demolished.
In the meantime it is clear that the national and international press is waiting with oversized expectations to hear from imprisoned lumber barons. While photographs of “definitely” shackled environment criminals no doubt give a double doses of XTC to the public opinion.
But after the over excitement comes the hangover: What are we doing with the 7.000 jobless people in Tailândia.

Caption of the last 5 images: Hundreds of logs of the expensive species maçaranduba, copaíba, ipê and angelim, were buried under a soybean field, close to the PA-150 state road.
Fonte first seven photographs: Paulo Santos/Reuters, Paulo Whitaker/Reuters and Roberto Stuckert/O Globo, last five: Policia Federal.

Footnotes:
*) (wiki) HDI or the Human Development Index is the normalized measure of life expectancy, literacy, education, standard of living, and GDP per capita for countries worldwide. It is a standard means of measuring well-being, especially child welfare. It is used to determine and indicate whether a country is a developed, developing, or underdeveloped country. It is also used to measure the impact of economic policies on quality of life
*) (wiki) IBGE or the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (Portuguese: Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística), is the agency responsible for statistical, geographic, cartographic, geodetic and environmental information in Brazil. The IBGE performs a national census every ten years, and the questionnaires account for information such as age, household income, literacy, education, occupation and hygiene levels.

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